There’s Always an Excuse Not to Invest - But Here’s Why You Should Anyway
05/02/2025
Fear is human, but it’s not a strategy.
When it comes to investing in the stock market, hesitation is normal. It’s easy to find a reason not to invest—recessions, elections, wars, bubbles, crashes. If you’ve been waiting for the “right” time, you’re not alone. But here’s the truth: there’s always an excuse not to invest. And yet, history shows that staying on the sidelines is often the biggest mistake of all.
The headlines never stop. From the moment the U.S. stock market was born, there have been reasons to avoid it:
1929 – The Great Depression:
Market Impact: The S&P 500 fell more than 71% from the beginning of 1929 to the end of 1932.
Recovery: While the full recovery decades, investors who stayed in saw major gains during the 1930s rebound and especially after World War II, when the U.S. economy entered a long-term growth phase.
1940s – World War II:
Market Impact: Uncertainty over the war caused volatility and fear.
Recovery: The market stabilized and began a powerful bull run during and after the war. From 1942 to 1945, the S&P 500 more than doubled, despite the global conflict.
1950s - Korean War & Cold War Tensions
Market Impact: Anxiety over nuclear war and military conflict led to investor caution.
Recovery: Despite global tension, the 1950s was one of the strongest decades for U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 rose approximately 292% from 1947 to 1961.
1960s – Vietnam War & Civil Unrest:
Market Impact: Social upheaval, protests, and war created deep uncertainty.
Recovery: The economy remained resilient, and while the market was choppy, long-term investors still benefited as the S&P 500 rose 55% in the 1960s.
1970s – Inflation and Energy Crisis:
Market Impact: A brutal bear market; the S&P 500 fell over 38% over two years.
Recovery: After inflation peaked and interest rates stabilized in the early 1980s, the market launched into a historic bull run beginning in 1982.
1987 – Black Monday:
Market Impact: On October 19, 1987, the Dow fell 22.6% in one day—the largest single-day drop ever.
Recovery: The market fully recovered within two years and began the massive expansion of the 1990s.
1990s – Gulf War & Recession:
Market Impact: Stocks dropped due to the war and a mild recession.
Recovery: The market rebounded quickly, and the 1990s became one of the best-performing decades for U.S. equities, driven by tech and economic expansion.
Early 2000s - Dot-com bust, 9/11 and corporate scandals
Market Impact: The S&P 500 dipped 50%, and the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% from 2000 to 2002.
Recovery: Though painful, the market recovered as stronger tech companies emerged. By 2007, the S&P 500 had fully rebounded to new highs.
2008 - Global Financial Crisis
Market Impact: Major banks collapsed, and the S&P 500 lost over 50% of its value.
Recovery: Stimulus programs, bailouts, and low interest rates fueled a recovery. From 2009 to 2020, the market enjoyed one of the longest bull runs in history.
2010s - Debt Crisis, Trade Wars, Political Gridlock
Market Impact: Fear over the eurozone, U.S. debt ceiling showdowns, and trade tensions with China caused periodic sell-offs.
Recovery: The market continued to rise steadily, with the S&P 500 delivering over a 191% return for the decade.
2020 - COVID-19 Pandemic
Market Impact: The S&P 500 dropped over 30% in just a few weeks in early 2020.
Recovery: Fueled by stimulus, low rates, and rapid innovation (especially in tech and healthcare), the market bounced back in record time and hit all-time highs by August 2020.
2022-2024 - Inflation, Ukraine War, Rate Hikes
Market Impact: Stocks faced pressure as the Fed raised interest rates aggressively, and global energy and supply chains were disrupted.
Recovery: While volatility persisted, inflation eased, and investors rotated into more stable and innovative sectors. Markets began rebounding as interest rate hikes slowed and economic fears moderated.
2025 - Tariffs
Market Impact: Investors became hesitant as tariff talks took center stage. The S&P 500 fell over 12% from April 2-7.
Recovery: The markets took an upswing, and the S&P 500 ended April 2025 down less than 1%.
At nearly every point in this timeline, investors had legitimate reasons to be afraid. But staying invested through these eras—despite the excuses—produced significant long-term returns.
If you invested money into the S&P 500 but stayed on the sidelines due to uncertainty and missed just the 10 best days in the market over the past 30 years, your return would be cut in half. If you missed the best 30 days, your returns would be cut by 83% (1). Markets move fast, and those best days often come right after major downturns.
Missing out due to fear or trying to “wait for the bottom” can cost far more than riding out short-term volatility.
People often say:
“I’ll invest after the election.”
“Once the economy is stronger.”
“I’ll wait until things feel more stable.”
But the market doesn’t wait for your comfort. It’s forward-looking, and by the time it feels safe, prices have already rebounded. The best opportunities usually come when confidence is low, not high. As stated earlier - fear is human, but it’s not a strategy.
The data shows a clear truth: those who invest consistently over time—through recessions, wars, elections, and panics—are rewarded for their patience.
*Past market performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Please contact me to talk about your specific situation. You are never charged for meetings or advice.
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